A LOOK AT SYSTEMATIC BETTING
Systematic betting has been with us for many many years. Many people have used this type of betting without realising it. The guy who only backs FAP’s is a typical systemite. The Two Year Olds only backer, he’s a systemite too.
Of course, finding the winners is only one part of the operation. Staking is were most people fall down when they hit upon a successful selection method. As you can imagine staking can take a lifetime to research and probably longer to perfect.
However I’ll endeavour to find time to look at some popular staking plans which can, hopefully, be matched to some winner finding method(s). However let’s find the winners first.
Probably the oldest backing method must be F.A.P’s. Quite easy to use. Find your race, note the time/meeting, add the wording and then the stake and you’re finished. Of course there’s not much satisfaction in such a bet. You could probably do just as
well with a pin. Also, not a lot to boast about if it wins, either.
A very popular bet with punters is always the Two-Year-Olds. The main attraction is that these younger horses tend to keep their form better than older horses and for longer. This is very true of the fillies. An old system for Two-Year-Olds revolved around form figures. Basically using ONLY STAKES RACES (e.g. not sellers, maidens or handicaps etc) refer to the form figures over the last two or three outings. In order of preference, 12, then 121 and finally 13.
Looks simple enough but should you have the wherewithal to do some back checking I’m sure you’ll be surprised at the outcome.
There are often systems for different times of the year. With June just around the corner thoughts must turn to the Derby and Oaks.
Many old timers used to make their Derby selections from what were known as Key Races.
The Derby Stakes to give it, it’s official title, is a truly International race. How long before we have a challenger from OZ?
As it is run fairly early in the season you do need to look at recent form which shows signs of real staying ability. There are not really any Key Races to check against as was once the case. Any horse with good Lingfield form over or near the 1 1/2 mile trip is often entitled to some respect. Should you also find one that was lightly raced as a TWO-YEAR-OLD, dig deep, you may have a "live-un".
The market is usually a good guide, especially once the runners have paraded.
Another Derby Selection method was quite straight forward. Back any runner unbeaten as a THREE-YEAR-OLD. If it was unbeaten as a Two-Year-old as well, all the better.
This method was also used for the OAKS.
Previous winning form over the distance especially if lightly raced is a bonus. Favourites don’t win this race with the regularity with which they once did.
French trained fillies were always hard to beat in this race.
Also run at the Derby Meeting is the Coronation Cup. A 1 1/2 mile ace that used to be the target for the previous years Classic Runners.
Unfortunately many of these now seek pastures new, usually at Stud Farms, so the class of runner is usually a little below the top mark. French runners need to be watched when the home contingent look a little lacking in ability.
Everything I’ve covered about all have to same "needs". Good solid recent form. The higher the returns for the winner the better the form will be need to be. Always remember. Only top class horses win top class races. If the indications aren’t in it’s previous form it will be there in it’s pedigree. Don’t expect a horse to run up an unbeaten sequence unless it is really outstanding in it’s class.
A few years back there was a REALLY TOP CLASS mare named Triptych. She was as consistent as they come. However she never managed an unbeaten run. It nearly always seemed that there was something just "coming to hand" which managed to keep her out of first place when a second successive win seemed on the cards.
A generation earlier or later and she would probably have been "A World Beater". She was probably better than most horses who managed to beat her. Whilst she kept her form at a high level, she was just too consistent for her own good. Her record of 14 wins from 41 starts could have been so much higher. The moral here is, look for the IMPROVING RUNNER too.
A systematic approach to betting is more likely to give you a return than haphazard race by race betting.
SPECIALIZE. Make yourself an expert in one field or another. Don’t try to be a master of each and every kind of race.
Just sit down and acquaint yourself with all the different types of race that there are.
HANDICAPS. then these break-down into various distances. MAIDEN races. Even these divide into at least two types.
Maidens at closing and Maidens at starting. Claiming races, Listed races, Group races. Getting the point. Even with the most up-to-date computer software you cannot cover everything needed to become a Multi-expert. Why do you think Racing papers employ more than one correspondent?
Because each correspondent has his own particular "field" of expertise.
Many successful backers even compile their own handicap. of course they usually stick to one type of race. A big favourite amongst amateur handicappers is the Nursery handicaps. Mainly because when they compile such a handicap they are starting from scratch. Just like the TWO-YEAR-OLD horses they RATE. Of course compiling a handicap in not for the faint-hearted nor the work-shy.
Perhaps we can look at trying our hand at compiling such a handicap in the near future.
Ascot is looming on the horizon. With it’s funny hats and big priced winners.
There are some good opportunities to be had at this meeting so I’ll have a look at some of the big races and their KEY RACE counterparts.